Just Saying
On The Lookout
There was the expected, then a leak and then there was the news.
The expected is based on what economic soothsayers say, the leak or so-called such, came late Tuesday predicting the number at 10.3% and the official number now out is 9.1%.
If you’re confused don’t be as leaks are becoming the new hacking.
All have their motives. Many believe the Supreme Court abortion leak was done by Democrats seeking to rally their base facing for them a would be midterm election disaster.
The bogus inflation number leak obviously centered on moving markets.
The news proved economic soothsayers wrong again. They were looking for 8.8% rise for June up from the previous 8.6%.
The leaked number if correct would increase the Biden crew’s nightmare as that ship continues to burst new holes in their hull.
The real number is not good news for the administration as White House officials put some pre-announcement efforts claiming the current number is a lagging indicator. But at some point it matters little.
People feel the pain and are cutting back not to mention creatively cutting corners in many cases to just survive.
Many people no longer think, they know, the CPI number is bogus anyway and real inflation is several points higher than officials claim.
“Stocks dropped and bond yields jumped after inflation reached a new four-decade high, adding to investors’ expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening monetary policy to control price growth.
The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, after futures on the index traded higher before the publication of data showing that consumer-price inflation accelerated to 9.1% in June. That marked an increase from the 8.6% recorded in May, and was a faster rate of inflation than economists had expected.
“The rapid increase in prices could erode consumer confidence, threatening to unsettle a pillar of the U.S. economy as well as corporate profits,” the WSJ reported earlier.
Expect Powell to have few if any patience about holding back on rate increases since the pressure he and the Fed are under continues to mount.
The surprise could be a full 100bps hike in rates versus the expected 0.75bps.
Best advice is keep your hardhats handy because this circus ain’t over yet. Meanwhile, also look for probing points as fear almost always creates opportunities.